Thursday, June 2, 2011

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2010-2015

[SOURCE to DOWNLOAD: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2010-2015]

Here’s some highlights:

Executive Summary
Annual global IP traffic will reach the zettabyte threshold (966 exabytes or nearly 1 zettabyte) by the end of 2015. In 2015, global IP traffic will reach 966 exabytes per year or 80.5 exabytes per month.

Global IP traffic has increased eightfold over the past 5 years, and will increase fourfold over the next 5 years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32 percent from 2010 to 2015.

In 2015, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever made will cross global IP networks every 5 minutes. Global IP networks will deliver 7.3 petabytes every 5 minutes in 2015.

The "terabyte club" will reach 6 million by 2015. In 2015, there will be 6 million Internet households worldwide generating over a terabyte per month in Internet traffic, up from just a few hundred thousand in 2010. There will be over 20 million households generating half a terabyte per month in 2015.

The number of devices connected to IP networks will be twice as high as the global population in 2015. There will be two networked devices per capita in 2015, up from one networked device per capita in 2010. Driven in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 11 gigabytes per capita in 2015, up from 3 gigabytes per capita in 2010.

A growing amount of Internet traffic is originating with non-PC devices. In 2010, only 3 percent of Internet traffic originated with non-PC devices, but by 2015 the non-PC share of Internet traffic will grow to 15 percent. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 33 percent, while TVs, tablets, smartphones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have growth rates of 101 percent, 216 percent, 144 percent, and 258 percent, respectively.

Traffic from wireless devices will exceed traffic from wired devices by 2015. In 2015, wired devices will account for 46 percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 54 percent of IP traffic. In 2010, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic at 63 percent.

Busy-hour traffic is growing more rapidly than average traffic. Busy-hour traffic will increase fivefold by 2015, while average traffic will increase fourfold. During an average hour in 2015, the traffic will be equivalent to 200 million people streaming high-definition video continuously. During the busy hour in 2015, the traffic will be equivalent to 500 million people streaming high-definition video continuously.

Video Highlights
Global Internet video traffic surpassed global peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic in 2010, and by 2012 Internet video will account for over 50 percent of consumer Internet traffic. As anticipated, as of 2010 P2P traffic is no longer the largest Internet traffic type, for the first time in 10 years. Internet video was 40 percent of consumer Internet traffic in 2010 and will reach 50 percent by year-end 2012.

It would take over 5 years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks every second in 2015. Every second, 1 million minutes of video content will cross the network in 2015.

Internet video is now 40 percent of consumer Internet traffic, and will reach 62 percent by the end of 2015, not including the amount of video exchanged through P2P file sharing. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P) will continue to be approximately 90 percent of global consumer traffic by 2015.

Internet video to TV tripled in 2010. Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing 17-fold by 2015. Internet video to TV will be over 16 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2015, up from 7 percent in 2010.

Video-on-demand traffic will triple by 2015. The amount of VoD traffic in 2015 will be equivalent to 3 billion DVDs per month.

High-definition video-on-demand will surpass standard definition by the end of 2011. By 2015, high-definition Internet video will comprise 77 percent of VoD.
Mobile Highlights

Globally, mobile data traffic will increase 26 times between 2010 and 2015. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 92 percent between 2010 and 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes per month by 2015.

Global mobile data traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2010 to 2015. Global mobile data traffic was 1 percent of total IP traffic in 2010, and will be 8 percent of total IP traffic in 2015.
Regional Highlights

IP traffic is growing fastest in Latin America, followed closely by the Middle East and Africa. Traffic in Latin America will grow at a CAGR of 50 percent between 2010 and 2015.

IP traffic in North America will reach 22 exabytes per month by 2015, at a CAGR of 30 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will generate 4 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 14.5 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 19 exabytes per month by 2015, at a CAGR of 32 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Western Europe will generate 3.1 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 12 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 24 exabytes per month by 2015, at a CAGR of 35 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 4 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 15.6 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Japan will reach 4.8 exabytes per month by 2015, at a CAGR of 27 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Japan will generate 0.9 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 3.8 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Latin America will reach 4.7 exabytes per month by 2015, at a CAGR of 48 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Latin America will generate 1 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 4.3 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 3.7 exabytes per month by 2015, at a CAGR of 39 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will generate 0.8 billion DVDs' worth of traffic, or 3.1 exabytes per month.

IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 2 exabytes per month by 2015, at a CAGR of 52 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 440 million DVDs' worth of traffic, or 1.8 exabytes per month.

Global Business Highlights
Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 24 percent from 2010 to 2015. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of 2.7 between 2010 and 2015.

Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 18 percent, compared to a CAGR of 19 percent for fixed business Internet and 79 percent for mobile business Internet.

Business video conferencing will grow sixfold over the forecast period. Business videoconferencing traffic is growing significantly faster than overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 41 percent from 2010-2015.

Web-based video conferencing will reached 50 percent of total business video conferencing traffic in 2010. Web-based video conferencing will grow faster than average business video conferencing, at a CAGR of 45 percent.

Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 30 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 24 percent. In volume, North America will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2015 at 2.9 exabytes per month. Western Europe will be a close second to North America at 2.7 exabytes per month.

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